Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Riparian environments are characterised by a high diversity of arthropod species, linking the aquatic with the terrestrial ecosystem. One of the dominant arthropod predators in this ecotone, carabid beetles are of particular interest as they may also act as facultative scavengers, feeding on carrion deposited along the shoreline. To test whether carabids feed on carrion, we examined the feeding preferences of the abundant riparian carabid Bembidion elongatum in a laboratory feeding trial, offering freshly killed and 24 hours post mortem Drosophila melanogaster. We subsequently assessed the detection probability of ribosomal prey RNA and DNA in predator gut contents using Drosophila-specific RT-PCR and PCR assays, and quantified nucleotide abundance by quantitative real-time PCR at 0, 3, 6, and 12 hours post-feeding. In the feeding experiment, B. elongatum showed a significant preference for fresh over carrion prey. Following consumption, the quantities of prey DNA and RNA in the predators gut declined over a 12-hour post-feeding period. However, no differences were detected in prey DNA or RNA quantities between individuals fed fresh prey and those fed carrion. Only immediately after consumption was the DNA:RNA ratio significantly lower in individuals fed fresh prey compared to those fed carrion while this difference was not observed at later time points. Overall, our results indicate that ingested ribosomal prey RNA in predators is present in high quantities, and that the DNA:RNA ratio is not a suitable indicator for distinguishing between consumption of carrion and fresh prey.

Many insect populations are experiencing thermal stress as a result of global change, making it imperative to investigate how their relationship with other organisms will be impacted by heat disturbances. Microbial symbionts, such as bacteria, have the potential to enhance or inhibit an insect's thermal tolerance. Solitary bee larvae host bacteria within their food stores ("pollen provisions"), which have been shown to benefit survival and development; however, it is unclear how heatwaves brought about by climate change will impact their relationships with these bacterial partners. In this study, we subjected blue orchard bee (Osmia lignaria) eggs and larvae to a 4-day heatwave (35 {degrees}C daytime:22 {degrees}C nighttime) or kept them at control temperatures (25 {degrees}C daytime:15 {degrees}C nighttime), then returned all bees to control temperatures for a 5-day recovery period. We assessed bacterial communities within pollen provisions and larval development stage pre-heatwave (Day 0), immediately post-heatwave (Day 4), and following the recovery period (Day 9). Bacterial community composition, diversity, and abundance were resilient to heat stress, but larval bees developed faster when subjected to a heatwave. This finding refutes the hypothesis that bacteria within pollen provisions modulate blue orchard bee responses to heat, suggesting instead that developmental effects could be more largely shaped by bee physiology or interactions with microorganisms other than bacteria.

The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, is abundant in England and can exert limiting effects on their avian and mammalian prey. Large-scale gamebird releases in the UK may be sustaining high predator numbers, leading to greater predation on other prey species, especially once gamebird stocks are depleted. However, little is known how gamebird release affects the broader diet of the red fox. Here we used DNA metabarcoding to assess the diet of foxes from 18 agricultural estates in Southern England, 10 of which released large numbers of gamebirds (red-legged partridges - Alectoris rufus, and common pheasants - Phasianus colchicus) and 8 which did not. Scats were collected over one year, allowing for seasonal investigation of the foxes' diet. We investigated the vertebrate species consumed and compared the non-gamebird dietary diversity and composition between release and non-release estates and across seasons. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) was found to be the most frequently predated species overall. Brown hares and field voles were detected more on release sites, while bank voles and dog faeces were detected more on non-release sites. We found little evidence that foxes predate ground nesting birds or other species of concern. The dietary diversity was significantly lower on estates that released gamebirds, and this difference was most notable during the post-shoot, spring months (February to April). On both estate types, diversity was highest in the summer months. The altered predatory behaviour due to gamebird release is likely to affect the populations of the non-game prey of the red fox and this should be considered when designing policies regarding gamebird management and biodiversity conservation. Alternative predation combined with predator control may be reducing predation pressure on non-game prey where gamebirds are released, but high fox density elsewhere likely results in higher predation pressure on a wide range of species.

Machine learning models can be used to analyze large bioacoustics datasets and explore variation due to geography or habitat. We find that in the monotypic Lark Sparrow (Chondestes grammacus), both environmental variables and geographic distance influence song variation in this species. Bird song is an important method of communication within avian species. The variation in bird song within a species can be due to a variety of factors, including genetic drift and isolation by distance. However, it remains unclear in species with wide ranges how environmental factors in particular can cause changes to the song. In this study, the song C. grammacus was analyzed via machine learning to determine if it had significant variation based on multiple geographical metrics. We trained a convolutional neural network to segment individual syllables of 91 C. grammacus recordings, then extracted song characteristics. We found that ecoregion and state explain variation in C. grammacus songs. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of using machine learning models to analyze large datasets, as well as the impact that ecogeographic variation has on song variance.

Smoke from spring boreal wildfires increasingly impacts eastern North America, exposing breeding birds to hazardous air pollution that may impact reproductive outcomes. Using data collected in 2018-2025 from 70,979 monitored nests of four widespread cavity-nesting songbirds, we found strong evidence that smoke greatly delays egg laying and can extend incubation and nestling duration. We further found that while smoke is associated with increased clutch sizes, in some species smoke exposure strongly decreases hatching or fledging success. Our results demonstrate that extreme smoke can have wide-ranging impacts on breeding birds, from altering phenology to impacting fitness. While the exact mechanisms underlying these results remain elusive, the full suite of effects suggests that modifications to adult behavior under smoky conditions is the most likely cause. As fire regimes shift, birds and other wildlife are at greater risk of exposure to toxic smoke during the breeding season, which may further exacerbate the biodiversity crisis.

Previously, we have demonstrated that certain ferric salts common in Archean waters, such as iron trichloride and ferric ammonium citrate, can protect liposomes from destruction by short-wavelength UVC light. In this study, we investigate the propagation of 254 nm UV radiation through aqueous FeCl3 solutions and its interactions with liposomes. We then consider these findings in the context of early Earth UV environment, discuss their implications for our hypothesis of the Darwinian evolution of liposomes, and integrate them with our previous experimental results.

1. Plants produce a great chemodiversity, which is the diversity of specialized metabolites (SMs). These SMs are produced in complex metabolic pathways and play an important role in inter-species interactions. There are numerous hypotheses about the evolutionary processes which brought about and maintain chemodiversity. Some have been partially tested in lab and field studies. However, some of their assumptions and predictions are better tested by quantitative modeling, and so far no quantitative model has investigated the role of metabolic pathways. 2. To close this gap, we developed an individual-based model for metabolic pathway evolution. It models enzymes creating metabolites with various modifications. Enzymes undergo inheritance and mutation. We used the model to compare the screening and interaction diversity hypotheses. 3. The screening hypothesis predicts promiscuous enzymes, genetic drift, the presence of many non-beneficial metabolites, and high metabolite richness. The interaction diversity hypothesis predicts specialized enzymes, selection, the almost exclusive presence of beneficial metabolites, and situation- dependent metabolite richness. We found that the patterns predicted by the screening hypothesis did not occur, while those predicted by the interaction diversity hypothesis did. 4. This provides reason to favor the interaction diversity hypothesis over the screening hypothesis when connecting empirical results to their evolutionary context

Copper is an essential micronutrient in most organisms that becomes toxic in large quantities. Repeated or prolonged sub-lethal exposure can lead to evolved resistance to copper toxicity over many generations, which may result in trade-offs between energetically expensive detoxification mechanisms and fitness. Alternatively, evolved resistance to chemical stressors may lead to correlated changes in other traits. This study focuses on a population of flies for which artificial selection for copper resistance led to an increase in both copper resistance and longevity. The apparent off-target benefit of copper selection on one component of fitness led us to investigate differences in fecundity and developmental viability in copper resistant and copper sensitive, non-selected populations. We assessed the effect of copper selection and copper exposure on multiple aspects of fecundity over the lifespans of females from the non-selected and copper-selected populations. Our study corroborated previously observed increased longevity in copper-selected flies. Controlling for variation in lifespan, copper-resistant females had comparable age-matched fecundity to copper-sensitive females and benefitted from increased longevity with higher lifetime fecundity. Overall, copper exposure negatively affected egg quality, but we found no difference in this trait between the copper-resistant and sensitive populations. Further, we found developmental viability under copper stress was significantly higher for eggs laid by copper-resistant females. Overall, we determined that copper resistant flies experienced a fitness benefit through both lifespan and fecundity. Costs of maintaining copper resistance may be associated with energetic costs, but these trade-offs may not always manifest in reproductive or lifespan fitness costs.

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a single genotype to produce alternative phenotypes in response to environmental cues, is a key driver of evolutionary change. In the water strider Microvelia longipes, males display remarkable continuous variation in hindleg length, a sexually selected trait used as a weapon in male/male contests for access to females. To determine whether DNA methylation mediates this environmentally induced phenotypic variation, we used three inbred lines of M. longipes that differ in mean hindleg length, body size, and allometric coefficients. We performed whole-genome bisulfite sequencing on adult males and females from all lines, and tested the effect of nutritional treatment on DNA methylation patterns. Our analysis identified 12,684,876 CpG 12% of which were methylated. This global level of DNA methylation is among the highest reported in insects. DNA methylation was predominantly concentrated within or near gene bodies (77% of methylated CpGs), consistent with patterns observed in other insects. Unsupervised clustering and principal component analyses revealed that methylation patterns differed significantly between genetic lines but showed minimal differences between sexes, indicating a strong genetic influence. Most surprisingly, despite nutrition having a pronounced effect on leg length, we observed no significant changes in DNA methylation in response to dietary treatment. These results show that in M. longipes, DNA methylation patterns are largely stable across environmental conditions and primarily determined by genetic background. This challenges the common assumption that DNA methylation universally mediates environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity and suggests that other epigenetic mechanisms, such as histone modifications or non-coding RNAs, may play a more direct role in regulating continuous plastic traits. Our study underscores the complexity of epigenetic regulation and highlights the need for broader investigation of molecular pathways to fully understand the molecular basis of phenotypic variation in natural populations.

Wildlife monitoring in arid environments is complicated by substantial temporal and spatial variation in animal activity driven by unpredictable environmental conditions. For highly mobile species, movements across the landscape may further influence activity recorded at fixed monitoring locations, raising questions about whether short-term surveys adequately represent patterns of site use. We examined temporal variation in acoustic activity of the threatened Pilbara Leaf-nosed Bat (Rhinonicteris aurantia Pilbara form), a highly mobile, cave-roosting insectivorous bat inhabiting the arid Pilbara region of north-western Australia. Acoustic activity was monitored continuously at two permanent diurnal roosts for up to two years, comprising 1601 detector-nights across three detector locations. We tested relationships between nightly activity and environmental conditions, detector location and anthropogenic disturbance. Activity varied substantially through time and among detector locations. Moon illumination and cumulative rainfall were strongly associated with activity, but their interaction differed between roosts: activity was highest under low moon illumination and low cumulative rainfall at Chateau Cave, whereas activity at Daltons was highest under low moon illumination and higher cumulative rainfall. Activity also differed markedly between detector positions within Chateau Cave, and humidity, temperature and artificial light at night had additional location-specific effects. Other measures of anthropogenic disturbance, including cave entry, blasting and mining activity, had comparatively weak support. The contrasting environmental relationships among locations demonstrate that acoustic activity at permanent roosts is strongly context dependent. For a species capable of extensive movements among roosts, temporal variation in activity may reflect behavioural responses and redistribution of individuals across the landscape rather than rapid demographic change. We suggest that facultative nomadism may provide a useful hypothesis for understanding temporal variation in roost use by Pilbara Leaf-nosed Bat. More broadly, our results demonstrate that short-duration acoustic surveys of highly mobile species in arid environments may provide an incomplete representation of longer-term site use and should incorporate temporal replication and environmental context when used for conservation and impact assessment.

Replication is central to most experimental and sampling designs, increasing inferential power and capturing fine-scale data heterogeneity. However, its importance remains poorly evaluated in some ecological and evolutionary settings. This is the case of metabarcoding studies using DNA recovered from sedimentary archives, in which biological signals may integrate ecological information through depositional and burial processes, and are often inferred from a single sediment core per site. Here, we evaluated the effect of different types of replication using sedimentary DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data from two genetic markers (mitochondrial COI and nuclear 18S), under a nested sampling design. The design included three intertidal sites, three spatially separated sediment cores per site (biological replicates), two sediment depth horizons per core, and eight PCR (technical) replicates per sediment sample. Variance partitioning showed that site identity and sediment age group together explained >70% of the variation in beta diversity, indicating that among-site spatial variation and stratigraphic variation were the dominant drivers of community composition. In contrast, variation among different cores within sites was small and non-significant (<5%). Among PCR replicates from the same sediment sample, richness varied substantially, whereas Shannon diversity was more consistent. Despite this variability, differences in community composition among technical replicates remained smaller than among biological replicates and site identity, indicating limited influence on broader ecological patterns. Community composition was highly similar among replicate cores within sites, consistent with stratigraphic coherence. These results indicate limited within-site heterogeneity and suggest that, under stratigraphically coherent conditions, increasing biological replication may yield limited additional information, whereas enhancing technical replication and stratigraphic resolution can improve ecological inference from sedaDNA metabarcoding datasets.

This research addresses a central question in Palaeolithic research: how hunter-gatherer mobility was structured across space and time in the Cantabrian Region (northern Iberia), which has human occupation evidence spanning from the Middle Pleistocene through the Holocene. A multidisciplinary framework integrating primarily {delta}3S isotope values, combined with {delta}{superscript 1}3C and {delta}{superscript 1}N, palaeoproteomics, Bayesian age modelling, palaeoclimatic reconstruction, isoscape mapping, and ecological diversity was developed. A total of 905 animal bone collagen samples, with evidence of anthropogenic modifications, from 16 key archaeological sites from the Mousterian to Mesolithic (Marine Isotopic Stage 5 to 1, between 100-7 ka BP) were analysed, permitting the reconstruction of spatial patterns of resource exploitation and human mobility. The {delta}3S isotope values show weak, inconsistent relationships with climatic proxies, suggesting that sulfur signatures are primarily driven by geographic and ecological factors rather than climate. Strong spatial trends are observed, with higher {delta}3S values in coastal zones and lower values inland. Diachronic trends reveal marked shifts in human mobility: smaller ranges during the Mousterian, increasing mobility through the Chatelperronian and especially the Aurignacian, followed by reduced mobility in the Gravettian and Solutrean, and renewed territorial expansion during the Magdalenian and, likely, the Azilian. In contrast, the Mesolithic is characterised by decreased mobility and thus increased territoriality in both coastal and inland contexts. Faunal isotope values and isoscape predictions reveal that some animals were acquired beyond local foraging ranges during the Palaeolithic, particularly in inland regions with lower {delta}3S values. Isotopic niche analyses indicate partial interspecific overlap consistent with ecological flexibility. Macromammal and micromammal diversity exhibit contrasting patterns, with a significant negative correlation in Simpson and Shannon indices. Macromammal diversity correlates negatively with {delta}3S values, linking increased hunting diversity to expanded catchment areas and longer-distance foraging, whereas micromammal diversity shows positive correlations with {delta}3S, {delta}{superscript 1}3C and {delta}{superscript 1}N reflecting stronger climatic influence. Overall, these results demonstrate that hunter-gatherer behaviour in northern Iberia during the Middle and Late Palaeolithic was highly dynamic, combining logistical and residential strategies that shifted in response to changing environmental conditions, resource distributions and cultural adaptations.

Ranges of small benthic fauna are notoriously difficult to assess. In some of these cases, modern eDNA methods can shed light on species occurrence. Here we conduct an exploratory study on the fish eDNA recoverable from the gastrovascular cavities of the easy-to-sample pore water siphoning benthic invertebrate, Cassiopea, across six sites within the Florida Keys. Twenty-seven fish 12S identities were recovered from water samples, two from sediment samples, and seventeen from Cassiopea gut swabs. In total, thirty-two different species were identified from nineteen families, including one shark species (Ginglymostoma cirratum), and five species of cryptobenthic reef fishes (f: Gobiidae, Labrisomidae). Additionally, five species were identified from medusae samples that were not recovered in water or sediment samples. The species identities recovered may provide insight into the fish in direct proximity to Cassiopea assemblages, as well as indicate that Cassiopea may accrue disproportionate eDNA from cryptobenthic reef fish compared to surrounding environmental samples. The unorthodox sampling technique of using eDNA recovered from jellyfish stomachs yields another avenue for epibenthic community data acquisition.

Understanding the spatial distribution of species and their patterns of endemism is necessary for establishing effective conservation priorities. Despite the vital pollination services bees provide, Californias native bee distribution patterns remain largely unexplored relative to plants and butterflies. We analyzed bee species richness and endemism across California and their concordance with plant distributions. Richness was high across areas of the California Floristic Province, including the Sierra Nevada, San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, South Coast Ranges, and the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Bee endemism was more localized, concentrated in the San Joaquin Valley, eastern Sierra Nevada and adjacent Great Basin, Sierra Nevada foothills, and California deserts. Because richness and endemism appear to operate at different spatial scales and likely respond to different environmental drivers, effective conservation strategies must address both. Additionally, conservation plans that incorporate both plant and bee diversity are needed to achieve more comprehensive biodiversity protection.

To implement adequate nutritional landscapes to bumble bees and inform conservation efforts, we need a better understanding of how different pollen sources impact bumble reproductive performances and phenology. We assessed the impact of multiple native pollen on bees reproductive success by feeding 40 wild-caught Bombus impatiens and B. griseocollis queens with either commercially wildflower pollen mix commonly used to breed Bombus queens (control group) or 75% red maple pollen (Acer rubrum) and 25% pollen mix (RM group). In a second experiment, we monitored the reproductive success of 45 microcolonies of workers, harvested from B. impatiens colonies. Microcolonies were fed either: 1) pollen mix (N=15), 2) pollen mix and hawthorn (Crataegus canadensis, N=15), or 3) pollen mix and sumac (Rhus typhina, N=15). In experiment 1, RM significantly increased reproductive outputs for both species. RM-fed founding queens were twice more likely to produce workers, and produced them significantly earlier, though total number of workers did not vary between groups. However, RM-fed founding queens produced significantly more brood cells, males and gynes than control colonies, and produced them significantly earlier. In experiment 2, we found an interaction between initial colony diet and current microcolony diet. Overall, workers harvested from RM-fed colonies produced significantly more brood cells and males than workers harvested from control colonies. However, when fed hawthorn pollen during experiment 2, workers from control colonies performed as well as workers from RM-fed colonies. This suggests carry-over effects from early pollen sources provided to colonies on workers, which may be circumstantially offset by pollen sources with specific nutrient profile. Using detailed nutritional information of each pollen (including data on 32 nutrients), we provide nutritional requirements of pollen to support bumble bee reproduction, especially regarding vitamin B3 and vitamin C contents. This study will help inform land managers and captive breeding programs on the ideal pollen sources for bumble bees to ensure reproductively successful colonies.

O_LIEnvironmental DNA (eDNA) methods are developing rapidly for ecological surveys, and passive eDNA sampling has emerged as a promising approach for integrating DNA signals over deployment time. However, how deployment duration affects the amount of detectable DNA retained by a sampler remains poorly understood. C_LIO_LIHere, an analytical model was developed to examine how DNA input, degradation, finite substrate capacity and residual retention of degraded DNA shape passive eDNA accumulation. The model distinguishes detectable adsorbed DNA from degraded, non-detectable DNA that may remain on the substrate and continue to occupy capacity. The residual-retention parameter,{theta} , represents the fraction of degraded DNA that remains capacity-occupying, with{theta} = 0 corresponding to complete replacement and{theta} = 1 to complete non-replacement. C_LIO_LIThe model predicts three key behaviours. First, when degraded DNA does not occupy substrate capacity ({theta} = 0), detectable eDNA accumulates monotonically towards equilibrium, but equilibrium recovery increases less than proportionally with DNA input. Thus, passive-sampler measurements can compress quantitative differences in environmental DNA supply. Second, when degraded DNA remains capacity-occupying ({theta} > 0), detectable eDNA can reach a finite peak and subsequently decline. Higher DNA input increases peak yield but shifts the peak earlier, whereas greater substrate capacity increases peak yield and delays the peak. Third, under prolonged deployment with{theta} > 0, a higher-input condition can yield less detectable eDNA than a lower-input condition, reversing the expected input-rate ranking. C_LIO_LIThese results show that passive eDNA recovery can follow saturating, unimodal or intermediate dynamics depending on substrate capacity and post-adsorption DNA fate. Thus, retrieval time cannot be optimised by adjusting deployment duration alone. Although investigators can choose deployment duration and sampler design, including substrate capacity, optimisation also requires calibration or explicit assumptions about ambient DNA supply, DNA degradation rate and residual retention of degraded DNA. C_LI

Population dynamics and their component vital rates may be driven by weather, climate teleconnections between sea and air (e.g. ENSO), or biotic interactions. These drivers operate directly or indirectly and on different temporal scales. We used a Bayesian structural equation model to characterize effects among weather, climate, and incidental intraguild predation (IGP) on the butterfly Euphydryas gillettii's vital rate of pre-diapause survival, using an 18 year dataset. IGP was a major determinant of pre-diapause survival, along with direct and indirect effects of weather and spring climate teleconnections. The direction of climate effects was reversed when mediated through IGP. Our analysis illustrates the need for sequential hypotheses to capture the cascading effects of abiotic factors via biotic interactions. Using sequential hypotheses addresses the debate on weather -- climate teleconnection roles by disentangling their contributions from one another. Finally, vital rates must be decomposed to component rates in order to detect their drivers.

Predation is a major selective force shaping lemur behaviour and population dynamics, yet direct observations remain rare, particularly for small nocturnal species. Here, we document predation on mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp., Cheirogaleidae) in Andohahela National Park, south-eastern Madagascar, and using complementary evidence from radio-telemetry and owl pellet analyses. Two radio-collared individuals were confirmed as prey of endemic snakes, Ithycyphus oursi and Madagascarophis meridionalis (both Pseudoxyrhophiidae), representing the first documented records of Microcebus predation by these species. Examination of owl pellets and prey remains from three sites and from three owl species revealed a single predation event by Asio madagascariensis (Strigidae), likely involving M. tanosi, no evidence of mouse lemur predation by Tyto alba (Tytonidae) despite high local prey availability, and a single and first predation record from Athene superciliaris (Strigidae). Material from A. superciliaris roosts was otherwise dominated by invertebrates, indicating that primate predation is likely opportunistic. Together, these findings expand the known predator guild of mouse lemurs and suggest that snake predation is rarely detected, and its contribution to mouse lemur mortality and population dynamics is likely underestimated. Our findings demonstrate how combining behavioural field observations with dietary evidence can uncover otherwise undetected predation events and clarify predator prey relationships in nocturnal primates.

Animals often attempt to resolve the trade-off between foraging and predation by regulating their activity timings and patterns. Driven by individual energetic requirements and the local environment, onset of activity in a species varies across space and time. These differences are particularly enhanced on a latitudinal gradient, influenced by varying lengths of daylight, temperature and seasonality. For a nocturnal mammal like the bat, such patterns translate to shorter activity windows at higher latitudes, both on a nightly and a seasonal basis. This constructs the timing of activity onset as a crucial variable for a successful night of foraging. While roost exit timings and influence of local conditions on bat activity have been extensively studied across species inhabiting a variety of locations around the world, our understanding of bat emergence behaviour on a global scale remains limited. To investigate emergence patterns in bats across a latitudinal gradient, we conducted a meta-analysis spanning 91 species from across 13 Chiropteran families. We evaluated how timing and luminosity (i.e., sun altitude) at exit varied across latitudes and species. Results revealed that bats across the globe tended to emerge under conserved thresholds of brightness, a pattern that was facilitated by a temporal delay in roost exits at higher latitudes. By maintaining emergence within the confines of nautical twilight (sun altitude between 0{degrees} to -12{degrees}), bats across the phylogeny thus seemed to balance the dilemma of predation versus foraging. This pattern was mirrored across the two broad dietary types (frugivores and insectivores) as well as different social structures (maternal v. non-maternal colonies). Furthermore, our models indicated that while local conditions dictate final exit decisions, shared ancestry was potentially influencing the extent of plasticity seen in emergence patterns. Taken together, these results highlight how broad-scale latitudinal gradients of light can influence the foraging strategies in a globally distributed nocturnal mammal.

Managers must make decisions in the face of uncertainty, especially when available resources are limiting. Identifying thresholds when certain conditions are met or exceeded enable the potential to mitigate risks. In 2005, sustainable harvest levels of willow ptarmigan were identified to avoid harvest efforts exceeding three hunter days km2. Here we evaluate these recommendations by analyzing line transect counts and harvest data from six areas forming three open/closed pairs in a region of state managed willow ptarmigan harvest. We developed three sets of Bayesian hierarchical models, one static distance model, and two dynamics models. One mechanistic hazard model and a Gompertz phenomenological model. Adult and juvenile density showed pronounced year-to-year variation that was largely synchronous across all six sites regardless of hunting status. The harvest effort parameter shows a striking difference between the two models. In the Hazard model, is positive, and excludes zero with near certainty, but in the Gompertz model, the parameter is highly uncertain. However, the two models do not contradict each other but answer complementary questions with different sensitivity to the harvest signal, harvest mortality is additive at the individual level, but this additive mortality is masked at the level of population abundance. The demographic cost of harvest is therefore real and quantifiable through the survival chain, but bounded in the long run by the stabilizing dynamics. A fixed limit anchored to monitored effort and bag is not a crude substitute for adaptive management but the appropriate design under the information commonly at hand. It will be a precautionary instrument grounded in the one relationship this study establishes firmly, the translation of hunter effort into harvest mortality.